Hedge Calculator

You bet one side. The market moved. Calculate the exact stake on the other side to lock in profit or cap your loss.

Hedge stake —
Guaranteed profit —
Total invested —
Return on investment —

How the hedge calculator works

Hedging is a defensive move. You have an open bet, the market has moved in your favor, and you want to take some risk off the table. The hedge calculator tells you exactly how much to stake on the opposite outcome so the profit (or loss) is the same regardless of which side wins.

The math: multiply your original stake by your original decimal odds to get the potential payout you are protecting. Divide that payout by the hedge decimal odds. The result is the hedge stake. The guaranteed return equals the protected payout minus the total you invested across both bets.

Example. You bet $100 on Manchester City to win the Champions League at decimal odds of 5.00 (potential payout: $500). They reach the final. The other team is now priced at 1.50 to win the final. To lock in profit, you stake $500 ÷ 1.50 = $333.33 on the other team. Total invested: $433.33. Guaranteed return: $500. Guaranteed profit: $66.67 either way.

When hedging makes sense

  • Futures bets that came in. Long-shot championship picks, season-long awards, division winners — these often have huge swings late.
  • Multi-leg parlays one leg away. If your 5-leg parlay is 4-for-4 and the last leg is a coin flip, hedging the unknown leg guarantees a payday.
  • Big lead in a live game. If your team was +400 pregame and now trades at −200 live, the live price on the opponent might be worth a defensive bet.
  • Promo-driven bets. Bonus bets and risk-free bets behave differently than cash; hedging the result locks in the bonus value.

When hedging is a mistake

Hedging trades expected value for certainty. If your original bet has true edge, every dollar you hedge is a dollar you give back to the market. Sharp bettors usually don't hedge — they ride out the variance because they know the long-run math is on their side.

The exception: when a single result is so large relative to your bankroll that variance dominates expected value. Locking in a life-changing win is rational even if it costs a few percentage points of EV. Use the Value Calculator to compare your edge before and after the hedge.

Partial hedging

You don't have to hedge for equal profit on both sides. A partial hedge (smaller stake on the hedge side) still reduces variance but keeps more upside on the original bet. Some bettors hedge just enough to recover their original stake — known as a "free roll" — so the worst case is breaking even and the upside is the full original payout.

Frequently asked questions

Hedging means placing a second bet on the opposite outcome of your original wager to either lock in guaranteed profit or limit a potential loss. The most common scenario: you have a futures bet alive at long odds and the opposite side is now offered at much shorter odds, so a hedge guarantees a return either way.
To guarantee equal profit on both outcomes: hedge stake = (original stake × original decimal odds) ÷ hedge decimal odds. For example, $100 at 5.00 with a hedge price of 1.50 means you stake $500 ÷ 1.50 = $333.33 on the hedge for $66.67 guaranteed profit either way.
Not always. Hedging gives up positive expected value in exchange for certainty. If your original bet has a real edge, hedging usually costs you money long-term. But for one-off situations — a futures bet on a long-shot team that made the final — hedging makes sense because the variance is so high.
Hedging is reducing risk on a bet you already made. Arbitrage is taking opposing sides of the same market at two different sportsbooks where the combined implied probability is below 100%, guaranteeing profit regardless of outcome. Both use similar math but arbing is set up in advance, hedging is reactive.
Yes, and this is one of the most common hedge scenarios. If your 4-leg parlay has won 3 legs and only one remains, you can bet against the final leg to lock in profit. Use the original parlay's total payout as the figure to protect, and the live price on the remaining leg's opponent as the hedge odds.

Related calculators

Parlay Calculator

Build the original parlay you want to hedge.

Odds Calculator

Quick payout for any single bet.

Value Calculator

Compare EV before and after hedging.

Hold Calculator

Find the sharpest market to hedge at.